Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation

Core Inflation and Trend Inflation June 2015

An important input to monetary policymaking is estimating the current level of inflation. This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation but with a time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends on the timevarying volatility and p...

Trend inflation , nominal rigidities , and endogenous growth

We study the implications of trend inflation for an economy’s long-run growth rate. To do so, we extend a New Keynesian model to allow for endogenous growth. The defining characteristic of the New Keynesian framework is that inflation and nominal price stickiness together induce relative price dispersion and thus reduce monopoly profits. When the framework is embedded in an endogenous growth mo...

Trend Inflation and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle

I show that the combination of small positive trend inflation with staggered prices may account for the large relative volatilities found in US labor market data. The model does not have any wage rigidity and is hit only by an aggregate technology shock. The calibration procedure uses standard parameter values. Controlling for the sample average of the CPI inflation rate and the degree of price...

The Relation Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty In Iran

A New Model of Trend Inflation∗

This paper introduces a new model of trend inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persisten...